Double Mover–Stayer model on customer switching in telecommunications industry

Customer acquisition and customer retention are the most important challenges in the increasingly competitive telecommunications industry. Traditional studies of customer switching always assume that customers are homogeneous, and thus that model customer switching behavior follows a Markov formulation. However, this postulation is obviously inappropriate in most instances. Blumen et al. (Cornell Studies of Industrial and Labor Relations, Cornell University Press, Ithaca, NY, 1955) developed the Mover–Stayer (MS) model, a generalization of the Markov chain model, to relax the requirement of homogeneity and allow the presence of heterogeneity with two different types of individuals—“stayers,” who purchase the same kinds of products or services throughout the entire observation period; and “movers,” who look for variety in products or services over time. There are two purpose of this article. First, we extend the MS model to a Double Mover‐Stayer (DMS) model by assuming the existence of three types of individuals in the market: (1) stable and loyal customers, who have stable usage within the same company; (2) instable but loyal customers, whose usage varies within the same company over time; and (3) disloyal customers, who switch from one company to another to seek for new experiences or/and benefits. We also propose an estimation method for the DMS model. Second, we apply the DMS model to telecommunications data and demonstrate how it can be used for pattern identification, hidden knowledge discovery, and decision making. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012     

基于SRUKF的异类信源多模型跟踪算法

针对多传感器系统中基于冗余和互补信息的机动目标跟踪,以及传感器探测任务平稳交接问题,提出基于SRUKFIMM多信源综合滤波算法进行目标状态估计,提高了目标状态估计精度;并依据当前最新相关量测与滤波预测值的偏差等信息,进行自适应航迹升/降维控制。仿真结果表明:滤波输出稳定平滑、精度高,可有效降低部分信源采样缺失对目标跟踪稳定性的影响,具有较强的鲁棒性能。     

弹载高冲击一体化子母弹子弹飞行姿态测量系统

为了测试获取子母弹爆炸抛撒后的子弹飞行姿态,采用基于M EM S惯性测量组合与动态存储测试技术相结合的方法来测试子母弹子弹的飞行姿态,对系统的组成、工作原理和主要关键技术的实现途径进行了详细的介绍。系统以M EM S三维角速度和三维加速度的惯性测量组合为姿态敏感元件,一体化的子母弹子弹飞行姿态测量记录器主要由FLA SH存储器、FPGA为中心控制器及多通道高速12位模数转换器等组成。记录器具有多通道、低功耗、体积小、大容量、高精度及嵌入子弹内部随子弹飞行测量等优点。系统试验结果表明:该系统能够准确获取子弹从抛撒到中靶的整个过程的姿态数据。     

多源信息的验前分布融合方法研究

验前分布的获取和表示是B ayes理论应用中的一个关键问题。针对目前多源验前信息融合中存在的过分依赖专家信息的问题,提出了一种基于第2类极大似然估计原理(M L-II)确定验前分布权重的方法,该方法将现场试验数据看作是由其边缘分布产生的样本,然后根据不同验前分布下现场样本似然性的大小来确定其在验前分布融合中的作用,并以此进一步确定不同验前分布的权重因子。最后通过算例证明了该方法比基于专家信息的融合方法更为合理和有效。     

基于插值FFT和多信号分类法的间谐波参数检测

为了在短数据且存在白噪声的情况下检测大幅度谐波附近的小幅度间谐波,提出了采用插值FFT和多信号分类法(MUSIC)相结合的间谐波参数检测方法.首先,利用加Hanning窗的插值FFT检测出信号中的主要频率成分;然后,从原信号中减去这部分信号,利用MUSIC方法对剩余信号进行频率检测,得到的两部分频率即认为是原信号中包含...     

Modeling multiple stage manufacturing systems with generalized costs and capacity issues

This study introduces one modeling methodology that describes a broad range of multiple stage production planning issues, including multiple limited resources with setup times and joint fixed cost relationships. An existing production system is modeled in this fashion, creating a new set of 1350 highly generalized benchmark problems. A computational study is conducted with the 1350 benchmark problems introduced in this paper and 2100 benchmark problems, with more restrictive assumptions, from the existing literature. The relative merits of a decomposition‐based algorithm and a neighborhood search technique known as NIPPA, or the Non‐sequential Incremental Part Period Algorithm, are assessed. NIPPA is generally the more successful of the two techniques, although there are specific instances in which the decomposition‐based algorithm displayed a distinct advantage. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005     

基于神经网络的舰船目标识别研究

为了实现对水下目标的识别,在现有特征提取方法的基础上,提出了一种从DEMON谱线谱和DEMON谱连续谱提取的特征方法,并设计了一个基于BP神经网络和多神经网络分类识别器的舰船目标识别系统。通过对实际舰船噪声目标进行识别,识别效果比较满意。这对舰船目标识别的发展具有一定的参考价值。     

交互式多模型目标跟踪的研究现状及发展趋势

系统地介绍了交互式多模型算法在机动目标跟踪领域中的发展现状、发展方向及其与数据关联相结合进行目标跟踪的发展趋势.通过分析交互式多模型算法本身存在的问题,指出了一些改进方法的可行性与不足;进一步介绍了数据关联与交互式多模型算法结合进行目标跟踪的发展情况及取得的成果,并对以后与交互式模型相关的研究方向进行了探讨.     

交互多模型算法的无人机控制系统故障诊断

交互多模型算法是一种广泛用于各种结构与参数变化的动态系统自适应估计的有效方法.在建立无人机控制系统传感器和执行器的全局故障和局部故障模型的基础上,应用此方法对传感器和执行器的各种软硬故障进行诊断,应用所建立的数学模型与方法,对无人机传感器和执行器的局部与全局故障进行了仿真计算.在仿真过程中发现,与一般的多模型方法相比,此方法能够更加准确可靠地诊断故障,无延迟报警,算法简单.仿真结果验证了该方法的有效性.     

多平台多目标航迹关联方法

战术数据链是当前各国信息化武器作战的高效平台,也是各国当前军事研究的重点和热点.其中,多平台多目标的航迹关联问题是数据链研究的一个技术难点.针对这一问题进行了研究,提出一种在数据链中对多平台多目标航迹数据进行关联的实现方法,并建立了多平台多目标航迹关联处理模型.对新提出的航迹关联算法进行了Monte Carlo仿真,结果表明新算法的有效性与可行性.